Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 16.343462 19.806901 23.656900 28.230295 33.490123 39.324969 46.261236
2025-05-18 11.034373 15.428400 20.864043 27.976924 36.924074 47.685700 61.476692
2025-05-25 7.885482 12.406471 18.500728 27.091783 38.638454 53.352112 73.212814
2025-06-01 6.022496 10.517608 17.043659 26.832937 40.714263 59.225377 85.230588
2025-06-08 4.496755 8.710778 15.285997 25.743089 41.317821 62.950317 94.427112
2025-06-15 3.773920 7.980994 14.949637 26.567763 44.554533 70.336089 108.866307
2025-06-22 2.923348 6.817411 13.702651 25.772887 45.228725 74.029979 118.251582
2025-06-29 2.523033 6.381342 13.575471 26.700483 48.531936 81.659553 133.575959
2025-07-06 1.878795 5.287116 12.091994 25.145204 47.715193 83.008694 139.696065
2025-07-13 1.646310 5.011017 12.067837 26.090387 50.994610 90.744483 155.656915
2025-07-20 1.429444 4.712264 11.944346 26.820674 53.933642 98.064444 171.271909
2025-07-27 1.242141 4.433880 11.812121 27.501940 56.807492 105.391192 187.172285
2025-08-03 1.040428 4.087239 11.542210 28.016719 59.660694 113.219424 204.862025
2025-08-10 0.822585 3.619505 10.927346 27.793767 61.213207 119.078501 219.868190
2025-08-17 0.617443 3.094868 10.060142 26.914669 61.439191 122.670837 231.327563
2025-08-24 0.483533 2.740629 9.526939 26.657252 62.785507 128.209327 246.175996
2025-08-31 0.350693 2.309069 8.682671 25.573179 62.390728 130.631403 255.874435
2025-09-07 0.299852 2.188448 8.668250 26.393482 65.857710 140.092352 277.864591
2025-09-14 0.220233 1.877472 8.019970 25.602819 65.937512 143.390992 289.378234
2025-09-21 0.190299 1.798902 8.065527 26.525501 69.668046 153.574840 313.232633
2025-09-28 0.126825 1.466040 7.194019 24.978481 67.964221 153.491837 318.998574
2025-10-05 0.109767 1.413312 7.264072 25.918633 71.768616 164.024934 344.031097
2025-10-12 0.092677 1.343748 7.256609 26.645058 75.139857 173.861790 368.132445